CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 08/04 - 06Z WED 09/04 2003
ISSUED: 07/04 17:15Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BAY OF BISCAY

SYNOPSIS

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FLOWS SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL EUROPE. UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN EXTENSIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER BULGARIA AND A HIGH OVER SCOTLAND TRANSFORMING INTO A HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN. A SMALL VORTEX OVER THE BAY OF BISCAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE WEST OF MOROCCO MOVES EASTWARD. SINCE AIR-MASS IS COLDAND STABLE THERE WILL NOT BE MANY THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY NEAR VORTEX OVER BAY OF BISCAY AIR WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERY SHOWERS. OVER MOROCCO AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO OCCUR, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION

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